Asteroid Tracker

Asteroid 101955

Bennu - the asteroid
NASA sampled

Bennu is a 490-metre carbonaceous asteroid whose surface defied expectations and whose future orbit carries a small but real long-term uncertainty. The OSIRIS-REx mission spent two years in close orbit before collecting a sample that landed on Earth in 2023.

How impact probabilities are calculated →

Diameter

~490 m

Roughly the height of the Empire State Building

Type

C-type Apollo

Carbonaceous, primitive composition

Sample returned

September 2023

~121 grams via OSIRIS-REx

Impact probability (2182)

~1 in 2,700

Subject to refinement; conditional on 2135 keyhole

What Bennu is

Bennu belongs to the Apollo group of near-Earth asteroids - objects whose orbits cross Earth's path around the Sun. Discovered in 1999 by the LINEAR survey in New Mexico, it was formally designated 101955 Bennu after a public naming competition in 2013. The name comes from the Bennu bird of ancient Egyptian mythology, a heron-like figure associated with the Sun god Ra and the concept of renewal.

Spectroscopically, Bennu is a B-type asteroid within the broader C-type (carbonaceous) class. Its surface reflects only about 4% of incoming sunlight - darker than charcoal. The diameter of roughly 490 metres places it well above the 140-metre threshold for a potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA, meaning it is 140 metres or wider with an orbit that passes within 0.05 AU of Earth's orbit, where 1 AU is an astronomical unit, approximately 150 million km).

Bennu is a rubble pile: not a single solid body but a loose aggregate of rocks and dust held together by its own weak gravity. Its density - around 1,190 kg per cubic metre - is lower than solid rock and consistent with a structure that is roughly 40% empty space. The asteroid also has a distinctive spinning-top shape, bulging at the equator, shared by several other small rubble-pile asteroids.

The OSIRIS-REx mission

NASA's OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security - Regolith Explorer) launched in September 2016 and arrived at Bennu in October 2018. For nearly two years the spacecraft mapped the surface in detail from orbit, initially at altitudes of just a few kilometres - the smallest orbit ever flown around a solar system body at the time.

The sample collection took place on 20 October 2020. The spacecraft briefly touched down on the Nightingale crater region, firing a burst of nitrogen gas to kick up material and capture it in a collection head. The mechanism collected far more than planned - so much that the sample container lid did not seal cleanly, requiring an early lid closure to preserve what had been collected.

The sample capsule separated from the spacecraft and landed in the Utah desert on 24 September 2023. Scientists recovered approximately 121 grams of material - significantly exceeding the 60-gram mission minimum. It was the first asteroid sample returned to Earth by a US mission, following Japan's Hayabusa and Hayabusa2 missions to asteroids Itokawa and Ryugu respectively.

Bennu's surface and composition

Before OSIRIS-REx arrived, radar observations suggested Bennu's surface would be relatively smooth - perhaps covered in fine, sandy regolith. The mission found the opposite. The surface was strewn with boulders, some the size of buildings, making sample site selection a considerable challenge. The largest single boulder, nicknamed "Mount Doom" by the science team, stands roughly 58 metres tall.

During proximity operations, the spacecraft observed particle ejection events: small rocks, up to several centimetres across, being ejected from the surface and entering temporary orbit around the asteroid before falling back or escaping. The causes remain under investigation - candidates include thermal fracturing, trapped gas release, and meteorite impacts - but the phenomenon was entirely unexpected.

Laboratory analysis of the returned sample confirmed the presence of hydrated silicate minerals and carbon-bearing organic molecules. These materials are thought to have formed in the presence of liquid water, consistent with Bennu originating from a larger, wetter parent body that broke apart long ago. The organics are not biological in origin, but they are exactly the kind of prebiotic chemistry that researchers believe was delivered to the early Earth by carbonaceous asteroids.

Long-term impact probability

Bennu's next close approach to Earth falls in September 2135, when it will pass within roughly 7.5 lunar distances (LD; 1 LD = 384,400 km, the average Earth-Moon distance) - close enough that Earth's gravitational influence will alter its subsequent trajectory. Precisely how that trajectory changes depends on where within the uncertainty envelope Bennu actually passes during the 2135 encounter.

If Bennu passes through a specific narrow zone - a gravitational "keyhole" - the altered orbit places it on a collision course with Earth on 24 September 2182. The probability of threading that keyhole, combined with subsequent orbital dynamics, gives a roughly 1 in 2,700 chance of impact on that date. This has made Bennu the longest-running probabilistic impact scenario in NASA's CNEOS (Center for Near Earth Object Studies) catalogue.

The figure needs context. A 1 in 2,700 probability means a 99.96% chance of no impact on that date. More importantly, that number will change as the orbital solution improves. OSIRIS-REx data is refining the Yarkovsky effect - a subtle force caused by thermal emission from the asteroid's surface that gradually shifts its orbit over decades. As precision improves, the keyhole question becomes answerable. Historical precedent strongly favours resolution to zero risk, as occurred with Apophis and dozens of other objects.

The 2182 scenario in perspective

A 1 in 2,700 probability sounds alarming but translates to a 99.96% chance that Bennu misses Earth on that date. The scenario depends entirely on a 2135 keyhole passage that is itself a small target within a large uncertainty region. Decades of additional observations - particularly Yarkovsky effect measurements enabled by OSIRIS-REx sample data - will almost certainly narrow the uncertainty until the keyhole is either confirmed or excluded. No known asteroid is on a collision course with Earth.

Why this page uses static data

Bennu's next notable close approach occurs in September 2135 - well beyond the range of the NASA NeoWs API used to populate this tracker's live dashboard, which covers approximately 60 days ahead. All figures on this page are sourced from published CNEOS and OSIRIS-REx mission data and are accurate as of the date this page was last reviewed.

Related pages

Common questions

What is the Bennu asteroid?
101955 Bennu is a C-type (carbonaceous) Apollo-class near-Earth asteroid roughly 490 metres across. It was discovered in 1999 by the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research (LINEAR) survey and named after an ancient Egyptian deity associated with the Sun and creation. Bennu orbits the Sun approximately every 1.2 years and crosses Earth's orbital path regularly, making it a near-Earth object (NEO, meaning its orbit lies within 1.3 AU of the Sun).
What did OSIRIS-REx find on Bennu?
The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft returned approximately 121 grams of material from Bennu in September 2023 - the first US asteroid sample return. Analysis revealed hydrated silicate minerals and organic molecules, suggesting Bennu preserves primitive chemistry from the early solar system. The surface was far rougher than pre-mission radar estimates predicted, covered in boulders rather than smooth regolith. During proximity operations, the mission also observed particle ejection events: small rocks being flung from the surface, a phenomenon not previously documented for an asteroid.
Will Bennu hit Earth?
No known asteroid is on a collision course with Earth. Bennu's next close approach occurs in September 2135, when it will pass within roughly 7.5 lunar distances (LD; 1 LD = 384,400 km). That encounter will alter its orbit. Current models assign a roughly 1 in 2,700 probability of impact on 24 September 2182, depending on whether Bennu passes through a specific gravitational keyhole during the 2135 flyby. This is a long-range probabilistic estimate, not a forecast. Additional observations - especially those made possible by OSIRIS-REx sample data - are steadily refining the orbital calculation and are likely to resolve the uncertainty entirely, as happened with Apophis.
How big is Bennu compared to familiar objects?
Bennu's diameter of roughly 490 metres is comparable to the height of the Empire State Building in New York (443 metres to roof). It is larger than most sports stadiums and taller than the Eiffel Tower (330 metres). By asteroid standards it is mid-sized - far smaller than the objects that caused mass extinctions, but large enough to cause significant regional damage if it reached the surface.
What is a C-type asteroid?
C-type asteroids are carbonaceous - dark-coloured and composed of primitive material that has changed relatively little since the solar system formed about 4.6 billion years ago. They are the most common asteroid type, making up roughly 75% of known asteroids. Their low reflectivity (albedo) makes them harder to detect optically. C-type asteroids are of particular scientific interest because they may preserve organic molecules and hydrated minerals that predate the planets.
What happens to the Bennu sample?
The ~121 grams returned by OSIRIS-REx in September 2023 are being studied by scientists worldwide. Initial analysis found hydrated minerals and carbon-bearing organic compounds - ingredients associated with prebiotic chemistry. Portions of the sample are curated at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston and distributed to international research teams. Some material is being preserved for future analysis using techniques not yet developed, following the same approach used for Apollo lunar samples.
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Sean Barraclough

Creator of closeapproach.space

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